US Equity Positioning and Key Levels

FICC and Equities | 21 April 2025 |

Below is a consolidated recap of various GS positioning metrics.

Summary:

1. CTA Corner:

- The systematic macro rebalance has been completed, with global equity exposure decreasing from an 8 out of 10 during the YTD/February highs to a current 1 out of 10, amounting to $53bn. This represents a short position from CTA/trend followers and 1-year low lengths from risk parity style + VA vol-control products. CTAs are anticipated to be buyers in every scenario over the next week and month.

2. GS PB:

- The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate rose by +1.84% between April 11 and April 17, outperforming the MSCI World TR, which increased by +1.55%. This was driven by an alpha of +1.02% from long side gains and a beta of +0.82%. Meanwhile, the GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate fell by -0.15% during the same period, impacted by an alpha of -0.48% from short side losses and a beta of +0.33%.

3. Buybacks:

- Last week's volumes were 1.1 times higher than the 2024 YTD ADTV and 1.7 times higher than the 2023 YTD ADTV, showing increased activity compared to the previous year, despite being slightly lower than the prior week.

CTA Flows:

- Next 1 Week:

- Flat tape: Buyers $24.47B ($4.68B into the US)

- Up tape: Buyers $40.35B ($6.98B into the US)

- Down tape: Buyers $12.15B ($3.15B into the US)

- Next 1 Month:

- Flat tape: Buyers $48.48B ($8.63B into the US)

- Up tape: Buyers $122.78B ($24.24B into the US)

- Down tape: Buyers $18.61B ($8.38B into the US)

Key Pivot Levels for SPX:

- Short term: 5595

- Medium term: 5775

- Long term: 5479