US Labour Reports Up Next
Today’s US labour reports are drawing a lot of attention from the market, perhaps even more so than usual. With the US Dollar trading lower on the back of Powell’s Jackson Hole comments, traders will be looking to today’s data to either hammer the greenback down further or affect a bullish reversal.
On the headline NFP release, the forecast is for a decline to 750k jobs from the prior month’s 943k. Given the negative margin here, there is room for an upside surprise, though it would likely take an increase on the prior month, to send the Dollar higher. For the unemployment rate, the market is looking for the trend to continue and for the rate to fall back to 5.2% from 5.4% prior while average hourly earnings are expected to decrease to 0.3% from 0.4% prior.
Average hourly earnings could be the real key to this month’s data. Even if jobs mark a decline on the prior month, a strong beat on the earnings number might still be enough to send the Dollar higher. If we see both the headline NFP and hourly earnings both beat expectations, this would likely cause the biggest upside reaction.
Where to Trade the NFP?
USDCHF
If USD does break higher today on a data beat, USDCHF looks a prime candidate for an upside move. The pair has been caught in a contracting triangle pattern recently, highlighting the lack of momentum in the market, along with indicators having gone flat. If price breaks the .9189 level, bulls can target a run up to .9288 initially.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.