SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 04/08/25
***QUOTING ES FRONT MONTH CONTINUOUS CONTRACT FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
***WEEKLY ACTION AREA VIDEO TO FOLLOW AHEAD OF NY OPEN***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6220/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6400 SUP 6130
DAILY VWAP BEARISH 6345
WEEKLY VWAP BEARISH 6324
DAILY ONE TIME FRAMING DOWN - 6311
WEEKLY BALANCE - 6451/6224
MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING UP - 6227
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement..
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
S&P 500 Futures: Growth Concerns
The August 2024 growth scare triggered significant selling by Asset Managers in S&P 500 futures. Although the subsequent Jobless Claims report eased some fears, overall Non-Dealer flows in S&P futures remained negative, aligning with historical patterns during VIX shocks. Similar concerns resurfaced in July 2025, driven by labor market updates and geopolitical tensions. On August 1, 2025, as S&P prices declined and the VIX surged, futures liquidation became evident. Compared to last year, tactical positioning appears less aggressive, yet long-term sentiment remains bullish.
- August 2024 Growth Scare: Disappointing U.S. macroeconomic data and volatility caused by a sharp repricing of the Japanese Yen led to a significant market reaction from July 30 to August 6. During this period, the S&P 500 dropped 3.6%, while the VIX surged by 10%. Asset Managers sold $15.2 billion worth of S&P 500 futures, according to Commitment of Traders data.
- VIX Shock and Non-Dealer Flows: While the next Jobless Claims report eased some concerns, Non-Dealer S&P futures flows continued to remain negative. Historically, VIX spikes result in sustained Non-Dealer selling over several weeks. During the August 2024 episode, Non-Dealers offloaded $11.7 billion worth of S&P futures between August 6 and August 20.
- July 2025 Jitters: The July 2025 U.S. labor market update, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, sparked similar concerns. President Trump raised tariffs on several countries, tensions with Russia intensified, and Nonfarm payrolls missed expectations with downward revisions to prior months. As a result, on August 1, 2025, the S&P shed 1.6%, while the VIX climbed 3.7%. Funding costs, measured by the September Adjusted Interest Rate future, fell by 8 basis points, and aggregate open interest in S&P E-Mini contracts dropped by $8.2 billion due to liquidation. Month-end distortions further amplified the funding decline.
- Tactical Positioning Comparison: Tactical positioning appears less demanding compared to last year. Prior to the August 2024 episode, S&P Non-Dealer net length ranked at 90% on a one-year basis. As of July 29, 2025, recent Commitment of Traders data shows a 10% rank on the same basis.
- Long-Term Sentiment: Looking at a broader timeframe, sentiment remains bullish. Since August 2020, S&P Non-Dealer net length as of July 29, 2025, resides in the top quartile, indicating optimism over a longer-term horizon.
.png)
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!