SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 14/8/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~25 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6350/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6504 SUP 6324
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6440/50
DAILY RANGE RES 6542 SUP 6425
2 SIGMA RES 6600 SUP 6368
GAP LEVELS 6367/6264/6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP 6466
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
.U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: NEW ATHs ON CPI
FICC and Equities | 12 August 2025 |
Market Performance:
- S&P 500: +113 bps, closed at 6,445 with $3.7 billion MOC to sell.
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): +133 bps, closed at 23,839.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +304 bps, closed at 2,292.
- Dow Jones: +110 bps, closed at 44,458.
Volume and Volatility:
- Total trading volume: 16.5 billion shares across U.S. equity exchanges (vs. YTD daily average of 16.9 billion).
- VIX: -935 bps, closed at 14.73.
Commodities and Fixed Income:
- Crude Oil: -130 bps, closed at $63.13.
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: Unchanged at 4.28%.
- Gold: -15 bps, closed at $3,399.
- DXY (Dollar Index): +46 bps, closed at 98.06.
- Bitcoin: +97 bps, closed at $120,023.
Key Highlights:
- New All-Time Highs: S&P 500 (6,445) and NASDAQ 100 (23,839), driven by pro-growth and cyclical sectors following a benign CPI report.
- CPI Data: Core inflation came in at 32 bps, with core goods showing muted growth (+0.21% m/m). This reduces concerns about a potential hot CPI print after the post-NFP rally. Core PCE is estimated to have risen 0.26% in July (+2.88% YoY).
Market Sentiment:
- Cyclicals outperformed defensives, marking their best day in three months.
- Debate continues between "catch-down" in AI/Mag 7 leadership and "catch-up" in broader market sectors.
Sector Highlights:
- Semiconductors: NVDA had its largest day of underperformance (vs. Semis/SOX) since mid-April, up only 30 bps.
- Airlines: Strong gains (7-10%) driven by soft landing narrative and headlines about Spirit Airlines’ financial struggles, benefiting UAL and DAL.
Trading Activity:
- Overall activity levels rated 4/10.
- Floor finished +311 bps to buy (vs. 30-day avg of +70 bps).
- Client activity muted:
- Long-Only funds (LOs): Net buyers (+$1 billion), broad demand across most sectors except discretionary.
- Hedge Funds (HFs): Small net sellers, driven by supply in tech and healthcare vs. demand in financials.
Post-Bell Developments:
- CAVA stock dropped -21% after-hours, continuing restaurant sector disappointments (excluding McDonald's). Summer conference comments hinted at macro challenges, but results were worse than expected.
Derivatives Market:
- Volatility declined after CPI aligned with expectations. Skew flattened as fear subsided.
- Anticipated continued decline in volatility, with daily straddles resetting to YTD lows.
- Key flows included rolling/unwinding in SPX and IWM, with notable activity in airline derivatives (AAL traded 250k calls vs. 20-day avg of 85k).
- Weekly straddle priced at 0.77%, factoring in upcoming retail sales and PPI data.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!