Daily Market Outlook, March 17, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, March 17, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
A modest upswing in global markets, led by gains in the tech sector, appeared to lose steam as the European session approached. Escalating tensions in the Middle East sent crude oil prices soaring. Futures signalled a potential 0.5% drop for both European and U.S. stock indices. Brent crude jumped 4.4%, surpassing $104 per barrel after rebounding from Monday’s 2.8% decline, spurred by reports of Iran targeting critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Asian markets extended their rally into a second day, buoyed by positive comments from Nvidia that fuelled optimism about tech stocks in the region. On the currency front, the Dollar strengthened, while U.S. Treasuries faced a selloff across maturities, pushing the 10-year yield up by 3 basis points to 4.24%. Gold prices also saw a rebound, rising for the first time in five sessions. In the world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin surged to hover near $74,500. Silver continued its upward momentum, marking gains for the second consecutive day. The Japanese Yen captured significant attention as it inched closer to the 160-per-Dollar mark, reflecting concerns over Japan’s heavy dependence on imported energy. Market watchers anticipate that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, with a potential rate hike of 0.25% expected later this summer in July.
The Strait of Hormuz has become the epicentre of escalating tensions in the Middle East, marking a departure from traditional conflict-driven supply disruptions in the region. This shift has steered investor attention beyond the crude oil supply itself, spotlighting the broader repercussions on refined products, petrochemical inputs, and maritime logistics. One notable impact has been the divergence in A-rated EUR-denominated peripheral sovereign bond yields. Countries heavily reliant on natural gas, such as Cyprus, Portugal, and Malta—especially those with significant industrial sectors—have experienced a marked increase in risk premiums on their mid-maturity bonds. In contrast, nations like Croatia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which have lower industrial activity and reduced dependence on natural gas, have remained relatively insulated from such pressures. As the conflict persists, there is growing concern about a two-tier energy shock. Countries that don't rely as much on natural gas and have more diverse energy grids are likely to have less severe inflationary effects. On the other hand, countries that do rely on gas may have more serious economic problems. Within the European Union, this disparity threatens to fragment the inflationary landscape, complicating the European Central Bank’s policy responses and undermining the cohesion of the single market. The situation is further exacerbated by Europe’s fragile energy infrastructure, characterised by dwindling gas reserves, inconsistent renewable energy output, and limited fiscal flexibility.
Overnight Headlines
US Allies Rebuff Trump’s Demand For Help Opening Strait Of Hormuz
Trump Signals Coalition To Force Open Strait Of Hormuz Is Not Ready Yet
Trump Says US Doesn’t Need Any Help With Hormuz
Iran, US Have Been In Direct Contact In Recent Days, Sources Say
Oil Rises Amid Ongoing Supply Disruption Concerns
Gold Steady As Dollar Eases And Traders Weigh Oil-Supply Crunch
Fed Keeps Getting Hit With New Shocks In Its Yearslong Inflation Fight
RBA Hikes Rates To A Near 1Y High As Iran War Raises Inflation Risks
Oil Jump To Stir BoJ’s Worry Over Risk Of Inflation Overheating
UK To Invest £1B Into Quantum Computing Research, Trials
UK Chancellor Pledges Fastest AI Adoption In G7 In Growth Vision
SEC Prepares Proposal To Eliminate Quarterly Reporting Requirement
Nvidia Adds Hyundai, BYD, Other Automakers To Self-Driving Tech Biz
Nvidia Predicts $1T Rev Through 2027 As AI Inference Demand Surges
Tesla, LG Energy To Build $4.3B Michigan Battery Plant
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1500 – €1.4 billion | 1.1550 – €760 million | 1.1600 – €2.2 billion | 1.1625 – €969 million | 1.1650 – €2.3 billion
USD/JPY: 158.40 – $820 million | 158.50 – $549 million
USD/CAD: 1.3645 – $544 million
AUD/USD: 0.7100 – A$509 million
CFTC Positions as of March 13, 2026:
Speculators have reduced their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 173,130 contracts, bringing it down to 1,917,664 contracts. Similarly, the net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures has been decreased by 119,624 contracts, now totaling 534,883. The net short position for CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures has seen a minor reduction of 305 contracts, reaching 1,338,236. In contrast, speculators have increased their net short position in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures by 34,408 contracts to a total of 290,102. There has also been a rise in the net long position for CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 21,772 contracts, bringing it to 42,037.
The Swiss franc has a net short position of -41,092 contracts, while the British pound shows a net short position of -84,197 contracts. On the other hand, the Euro has a net long position of 105,144 contracts, and the Japanese yen records a net short position of -41,387 contracts.The net long position for Bitcoin stands at 1,302 contracts
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 6800 Target 6920
Below 6700 Target 6500
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.1675 Target 1.1730
Below 1.15 Target 1.1350
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3450 Target 1.3550
Below 1.3400 Target 1.3150
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 159 Target 161.50
Below 155 Target 152
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 5150 Target 5325
Below 5200 Target 4900
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 78k Target 81.5k
Below 75k Target 53k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!